Health Management in Italian Prisons during COVID-19 Outbreak: A Focus on the Second and Third Wave.

The SARS-CoV-2 spread is a threatening and challenging issue for correctional systems worldwide because of many factors, particularly overcrowding and of the intrinsic characteristics of the population. The prevention measures adopted by the Italian Government were aimed to protect and preserve both inmates' and prison workers' health. The present study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the adopted strategies. METHODS: Data regarding Italian prisons' occupation and prisoners' population from January 2019 to June 2021, as well as the cumulative weekly increase of confirmed cases and the number of doses of vaccine administered among the population of inmates, the prison workers, and Italian population from November 2020 to the end of June 2021, were collected. RESULTS: Prisons' occupation dropped from 120% to 106% after the beginning of the pandemics. The confirmed cases between inmates were consistently lower than among the Italian population and prison workers. A time-series chart showed a time lag of one week between the peaks of the different population. CONCLUSIONS: The containing strategies adopted by the Italian correctional system have proved their effectiveness in terms of the prevention and protection of both inmate and staff health.

Insights gained from early modelling of COVID-19 to inform the management of outbreaks in UK prisons.

PURPOSE: In this work, the authors present some of the key results found during early efforts to model the COVID-19 outbreak inside a UK prison. In particular, this study describes outputs from an idealised disease model that simulates the dynamics of a COVID-19 outbreak in a prison setting when varying levels of social interventions are in place, and a Monte Carlo-based model that assesses the reduction in risk of case importation, resulting from a process that requires incoming prisoners to undergo a period of self-isolation prior to admission into the general prison population. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Prisons, typically containing large populations confined in a small space with high degrees of mixing, have long been known to be especially susceptible to disease outbreaks. In an attempt to meet rising pressures from the emerging COVID-19 situation in early 2020, modellers for Public Health England's Joint Modelling Cell were asked to produce some rapid response work that sought to inform the approaches that Her Majesty's Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) might take to reduce the risk of case importation and sustained transmission in prison environments. FINDINGS: Key results show that deploying social interventions has the potential to considerably reduce the total number of infections, while such actions could also reduce the probability that an initial infection will propagate into a prison-wide outbreak. For example, modelling showed that a 50% reduction in the risk of transmission (compared to an unmitigated outbreak) could deliver a 98% decrease in total number of cases, while this reduction could also result in 86.8% of outbreaks subsiding before more than five persons have become infected. Furthermore, this study also found that requiring new arrivals to self-isolate for 10 and 14 days prior to admission could detect up to 98% and 99% of incoming infections, respectively. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS: In this paper we have presented models which allow for the studying of COVID-19 in a prison scenario, while also allowing for the assessment of proposed social interventions. By publishing these works, the authors hope these methods might aid in the management of prisoners across additional scenarios and even during subsequent disease outbreaks. Such methods as described may also be readily applied use in other closed community settings. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: These works went towards informing HMPPS on the impacts that the described strategies might have during COVID-19 outbreaks inside UK prisons. The works described herein are readily amendable to the study of a range of addition outbreak scenarios. There is also room for these methods to be further developed and built upon which the timeliness of the original project did not permit.

Targeted Release in the COVID-19 Correctional Crisis: Using the RNR Model to Save Lives.

While the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically affected the lives of people around the world, select populations (e.g., elderly, immune-compromised, and incarcerated individuals) are among the most likely to contract the virus and among the least likely to overcome the illness and regain full health. This paper focuses on the incarcerated individuals and how the coronavirus has added a new and unprecedented threat to correctional facilities that are already overcrowded and ill-equipped to identify and address the medical needs of the inmate population. The risk-need-responsivity model (RNR) should be used to make empirically-informed decisions about the targeted release. The identification and release of inmates who pose the least threat to society will help alleviate some of the burdens associated with prison crowding. Specifically, with fewer inmates, correctional facilities can comply with social distancing guidelines, introduce enhanced cleaning measures, and make necessary institutional adjustments. In so doing they will limit the transmission of COVI-19 within correctional institutions, ensure the safety of staff and their charges, and enable prisons and jails to better accommodate the needs of the inmate population.